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cdennisg
Samba Member
Joined: November 02, 2004
Posts: 20318
Location: Sandpoint, ID
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 Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| DonKombi wrote: |
1. The value of any car is whatever a buyer is willing to pay. |
I have always gotten a kick out of this cop out statement. I have no intention here of picking on you, just the general claim. Anyone who knows a particular market knows exactly what a product in that market is worth. When you have a product for sale, you set a price. You will sell it for more, but not less. That is what the product is worth.
Again, not directed at you, DonKombi, just my view on this statement overall.
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novetti
Samba Member
Joined: August 15, 2004
Posts: 469
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| Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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The VW scene (specially) Splitscreen Kombis has changed and evolved a lot in the last 10, to 15 years.
I already posted here that these two words (''investment'' and ''kombi'') shouldn't naturally belong in the same phrase, whoever the world is upside down anyway.
I had decided to part away with my VW vehicles, simply put I don't enjoy them anymore since they became ''an investment'', and with the evolution path this market took.
Would I pay 100k for a 23 window (even if I had all the money in the world) ?
And my stance is no.
However, the cheer number of people who now ''discovered'' the Kombis and put pressure in the prices, it seems unbeatable. The purists should actually welcome people wanting to jump in any vehicle (been German, Brasilian, South African, Australian original, converted or not etc), because the pressure will go on. These people are individuals who never owned, driven or even been a passenger at these old tin cans. These are the guys forking out big $$$. Some think is an investment, others just want the looks.
If the market would rely in individuals like me, no kombi would be worth more than what it sold new to the adjusted inflation price. Maybe I am an exception but someone like me with a lifetime and family generations with exposure to these vehicles, (ownership more than 40 splitscreens alone within my family and we were not car dealers), my dad had 20 of them as delivery vehicles in the 50's,60's and 70's, we commuted to school, to the beach etc and learned how to drive on them.
For me they are good cars, however there is a ceiling in my feelings for them. |
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DonKombi
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2014
Posts: 209
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| Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:07 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| cdennisg wrote: |
| DonKombi wrote: |
1. The value of any car is whatever a buyer is willing to pay. |
I have always gotten a kick out of this cop out statement. I have no intention here of picking on you, just the general claim. Anyone who knows a particular market knows exactly what a product in that market is worth. |
Interesting take.
"cop out statement"?
So......
Lets assume Grumpy has converted a couple/few dozen of these Brazilian 15's into 23's.
Lets assume ALL (except for two) have been owned by ME.
Lets assume I figure my costs and set a price I am comfortable with.
Lets assume that the cars sell at my price.
Does that make it the "market price"?
No it doesn't.
Because I am the one establishing the price......I could be leaving $10K per car on the table due to pricing too low.
Bottom line: The "resale" market for Brazilian 23W conversions is completely unchartered waters........THERE IS NO "MARKET PRICE"!!!!!!
Hard to establish "market price" with ZERO comps......
I could easily see an exceptionally well-done Brazilian 23W go to Barrett Jackson and fetch 100K on the right day to the right buyer. None of the M-code geeks here on Samba would buy it......but a deep-pocket buyer who wants something shiny with 23 windows may step up..... Would a transaction such as this establish a new "market price"? Of course not....
How do you establish "resale value" for a class of vehicle that is new and has never been "resold" (publicly...and to my knowledge). You cant.
Hence..... the "value of any car is whatever a buyer is willing to pay" statement. |
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DonKombi
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2014
Posts: 209
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| Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| cdennisg wrote: |
When you have a product for sale, you set a price. You will sell it for more, but not less. That is what the product is worth.
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Couldn't disagree more.....
So if somebody sets a price.....that is what the product is worth?
I think there are about one million overpriced items for sale here on TheSamba where the sales price does not even come within the same universe of its actual worth.
You are smarter than that... did I miss something? |
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cdennisg
Samba Member
Joined: November 02, 2004
Posts: 20318
Location: Sandpoint, ID
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| Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:46 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| DonKombi wrote: |
| cdennisg wrote: |
When you have a product for sale, you set a price. You will sell it for more, but not less. That is what the product is worth.
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Couldn't disagree more.....
So if somebody sets a price.....that is what the product is worth?
I think there are about one million overpriced items for sale here on TheSamba where the sales price does not even come within the same universe of its actual worth.
You are smarter than that... did I miss something? |
You quoted an edited version of my statement. In the first line I mentioned how this works when you know your market. If you know your market, price the product accordingly, and sell the product, you have found its worth. It is not just "what a buyer will pay" because drunk guys at auctions that have deep pockets do not pay what things are worth in the open market. IF that were the case, that rusted out 63 panel camper with 30 years of garbage and a dead dog on the back seat would be worth what the seller is asking after seeing "one of those vans go for $200K on that there TV!".
See the difference in "worth" from different viewpoints?
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Clara 
Samba Member
Joined: June 14, 2003
Posts: 12406
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| Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 8:56 am Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| easy e wrote: |
40k breakdown... off the cuff round numbers & probably 25+% off
It was probably a $3,000 bus in Brazil
Slap on paint job & Tijuana style upholstery $1,000 ($4,000)
Sell to North American for profit + $4,000 ($8,000)
Shipping + paperwork $3,000 (11,000)
Add sunroof in US $5,000 ($16,000)
Re-do headliner $1,000 ($17,000)
Engine/trans/tires $3,000 ($20,000)
Amount you're overpaying $20,000
But, having a finished bus (not starting from square one) is worth something... maybe $8-10,000?? (very subjective)
Still overpaying (easily) by a good $10,000 |
^^^^
Bottom line: Evan estimates a Brazilian 15 turned into a 23 is worth ~ $20 to 30K in the USA
| Malokin Martin wrote: |
Nobody wants an expensive brasilian 23 window clone and there are few (if any) stock brasilian bus' that are genuinely worth close to 40k. I imagine it would be tough to flip on the other end once you got tired of it.
As a side note, once you get anywhere above 20K (actual) cash in hand, you have real bargaining power. |
| DonKombi wrote: |
But the marketplace has an ENORMOUS hunger for INEXPENSIVE 23-window conversions.
I have sold over 20 converted 23-window buses in the past 18 months. All have been in the 16K - 29K range (except for a couple of REALLY nice ones that went for 35K).
All were converted by Grumpy in Grumpy's shop using the highest quality conversion parts and techniques on planet earth. Some were rough projects (closer to the 16K range)....while others were decent drivers (closer to the 29K range). And everything in between.
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Looks to me that Donkombi agrees with Evan and Malokin Martin, except says their guesstimates on value range is a bit high at the low end.
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Craig
Samba Member
Joined: August 09, 2004
Posts: 766
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
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| Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 9:00 am Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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You laugh (and smiley) at odd things:
| DonKombi wrote: |
I just find it incredibly humorous that people who have ZERO clue about Brazilian buses find the need to casually post numbers that they grasp from thin air. With NO IDEA of what the process entails. Just wild, unadulterated speculation.
Unbelievably funny.  |
Now, this is unbelievably funny and incredibly humorous: (from Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: Official whine about Beetles and parts for sale topic):
| DonKombi wrote: |
| DonKombi is not a business. DonKombi is a hobbyist just like you. |
Stop allowing "M-code geeks" to pull your chain, your successes and smugness are proof that you need not to defend your opinions. Savor the repute you get from your buyers. You do not need the approval here. |
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Abscate
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014
Posts: 22722
Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
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| Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 9:35 am Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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I detect the horrible sucking sound of overpriced splits depreciating.....
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DonKombi
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2014
Posts: 209
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| Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| cdennisg wrote: |
| DonKombi wrote: |
| cdennisg wrote: |
When you have a product for sale, you set a price. You will sell it for more, but not less. That is what the product is worth.
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Couldn't disagree more.....
So if somebody sets a price.....that is what the product is worth?
I think there are about one million overpriced items for sale here on TheSamba where the sales price does not even come within the same universe of its actual worth.
You are smarter than that... did I miss something? |
You quoted an edited version of my statement. In the first line I mentioned how this works when you know your market. If you know your market, price the product accordingly, and sell the product, you have found its worth. It is not just "what a buyer will pay" because drunk guys at auctions that have deep pockets do not pay what things are worth in the open market. IF that were the case, that rusted out 63 panel camper with 30 years of garbage and a dead dog on the back seat would be worth what the seller is asking after seeing "one of those vans go for $200K on that there TV!".
See the difference in "worth" from different viewpoints? |
I see your points......and I hope you see mine:
After the $218K Barrett Jackson 23W and a bunch of other CONFIRMED sales north of 100K.....it is safe to say the "market value" for nicely restored original 23W buses is north of 100K.
A far as the Brazilian 23W's go.... I do not "know my market" and I certainly have not "found its worth". I am just trucking along every day and playing around with these things in my spare time. Trying to find efficiencies.......trying to streamline the process.......trying to make the process easier and better....trying my best to deliver value.
With no comps..... its very hard to establish a "market price"
Some people want to get into 23-window ownership as inexpensive as possible (the 16K-18K crowd) because they will be ripping EVERYTHING apart and re-doing the entire car. Running engine is meaningless because it will be getting a new one anyway. Brakes are meaningless because they will be replaced with new anyway.
Other people want a 23-window that is complete, presentable, running, driving, and something they can drive to the beach in NOW. And they dont mind paying more (high $20's).
Two COMPLETELY different type of buyers. And I am trying to figure out who I should focus on. I should probably continue focusing on both!!
I must have missed that day at school when they taught about buying, selling, and collecting old Volkswagens. Every day is a continual learning process. I dont have all the answers...... but I am always trying to learn new things.
Bottom line: I am trying to FIND my market.....and it is all being done by trial and error. |
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DonKombi
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2014
Posts: 209
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| Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:55 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW Bs a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| Happy Fourth of July to everyone!! God Bless America!! |
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Robbyvm
Samba Member
Joined: December 23, 2015
Posts: 15
Location: Belgium
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| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2016 12:54 am Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW be a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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this was a great read and i'm still convinced that everyone can have his/her own opinion
I more interested in the statement that with 100K in hand it can be turned into 150K within 365 days ( and guaranteed )...
i wish i could have that talent, i would be a rich man in july 2017 !!! |
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novetti
Samba Member
Joined: August 15, 2004
Posts: 469
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| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:46 am Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW be a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| Robbyvm wrote: |
this was a great read and i'm still convinced that everyone can have his/her own opinion
I more interested in the statement that with 100K in hand it can be turned into 150K within 365 days ( and guaranteed )...
i wish i could have that talent, i would be a rich man in july 2017 !!! |
Wrong...you will be 850K short of been a millionaire 
Wanna buy a kombi? Call me  |
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EverettB
Administrator
Joined: April 11, 2000
Posts: 69886
Location: Phoenix Metro
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| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:47 am Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW be a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| Robbyvm wrote: |
I more interested in the statement that with 100K in hand it can be turned into 150K within 365 days ( and guaranteed )...
i wish i could have that talent, i would be a rich man in july 2017 !!! |
Nothing is guaranteed but if someone is doing well buying a particular type of Bus, doing work to it, and reselling it for a profit I can see how they could extrapolate that into a particular amount of profit.
More power to them if they have a plan and execute it and make some money.
Don't forget the legal lingo that comes with all of your retirement stuff though:
"Past Performance Is Not An Indicator Of Future Results"
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DonKombi
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2014
Posts: 209
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| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:26 pm Post subject: Re: How can I make a 11 Window VW be a 23 Window Samba Bus? |
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| EverettB wrote: |
| Robbyvm wrote: |
I more interested in the statement that with 100K in hand it can be turned into 150K within 365 days ( and guaranteed )...
i wish i could have that talent, i would be a rich man in july 2017 !!! |
Nothing is guaranteed but if someone is doing well buying a particular type of Bus, doing work to it, and reselling it for a profit I can see how they could extrapolate that into a particular amount of profit.
More power to them if they have a plan and execute it and make some money.
Don't forget the legal lingo that comes with all of your retirement stuff though:
"Past Performance Is Not An Indicator Of Future Results" |
That was a mis-read on your part, Everett.
I was explaining, in detail, how I think vintage VW's are not particularly good investments. The 100K into 150K comment was referring to NON VW-vehicle endeavors. |
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