Current (2024) VW bus/Cab market trends

[chamilka]

Hey all,
Do you think the VW bus market is getting softer? I've been watching VW Buses and Cabs being sold on sites like BAT, and I'm surprised by how much they're going for lately. I have a fully restored German-made SO-42 that I thought was worth a lot, but now I'm not so sure. Even though my classic insurance says it's worth more than what I've seen at auctions, it's strange to see even special buses like ambulances selling for less. Also, there are a lot of well restored Brazilian buses and clones (like the 23-window ones) selling for less money, which makes me wonder if that's affecting prices overall. VW specialty sites still list buses for really high prices, but this difference in auction prices makes me think about what's happening in the market overall.

[Who.Me?]

There are a bunch of threads like this in all the sub-forums on The Samba.

Possibly aside from the odd 'special' VW; prices seem to have softened in the last few years.

My take on it is that it's not surprising. A classic car is up there as an extreme example of a luxury good. A number of economies are down or fluctuating at the moment, so folks are having to make tougher decisions on what they spend their money on, or delay those decisions.

Whether air cooled VW prices in general pick up again when/if things stabilise is anyone's guess. The extent to which they prove to have cross-generational appeal that extends to millenals and gen-z may also affect that. They are, or will be, the next groups with the potential to have sufficient disposable income. Whether enough of them will want an old VW that they drive demand enough to raise prices only time will tell.

I wouldn't consider it sensible to buy any luxury good as an investment decision.
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Andy


Looking for info on my truck's history. Are you from Campbell California or nearby. Do you recognise it? ... http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=636786

[Braukuche]

I also watch BaT a lot to get an idea of real value.
Classic car prices overall went down after Covid. Not down to pre Covid levels, but some makes saw up to a 25% decline in value. Not sure specifically with buses but it’s pretty clear that project buses and daily driver buses took a huge hit and still have not recovered. Even nicely done buses haven’t. Collector level buses like most vintage cars still do well. Basically the rich who are insulated from an downturns will continue to buy a premium for what is rare and exotic and the rest of us will have to make hard decisions which affect our markets which is turds up to nice buses.
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Go Reds! Smash state!

Retirement is here!
1956 Ghia
1959 SO-23 Westfalia
1960 double cab
1960 Baja Bug
1963 stretched double cab
1962 Golde sunroof Ghia
1963 356 B coupe
1963 Notchback
1967 21 window less rusty now

[Lind]

[chamilka]

Thank you all for your feedback. While economic downturns, uncertainties, and inflation can indeed decrease discretionary spending on luxury items like vintage buses, I believe there are additional factors at play within the bus market.

Andy made a noteworthy point about the "cross-generational aspect." As the collector base for vintage buses ages, there may be fewer new enthusiasts entering the market. Moreover, newer enthusiasts might not place as much value on factors such as originality or the country of manufacture, leading to a normalization of preferences across the board.

I also suspect that the higher supply of Brazilian and Mexican-made buses is contributing to the downward pressure on prices. There seems to be a significant increase in the availability of non-German buses for sale compared to five years ago, particularly Split Window buses from the 1970s. If you check the BAT auction results, you'll see what I mean. It appears that those who have been dreaming of owning a Split Window bus are increasingly turning to non-German made buses, as they are often much cheaper than their German counterparts.

When you have a chance, take a look at the BAT auction results for buses to see the trends firsthand. I can't believe the prices of below two buses , crazy, however I know auction prices can be bit unpredictable:
- fairly nice full functioning 1966 Volkswagen Type 2 Kombi sold for $9,761 on 4/6/24
- very nice full functioning 1979 Volkswagen Westphalia Camper sold for 12,000 on 5/2/24

[Douglas Denlinger]

Both of the buses you are referring to are not main stream collectable.

There have been no quality original or restored buses for sale on BAT for over a year.

BAT also force sellers, much like, Mecum, Gooding, etc to accept lower reserves in order to list vehicles. Then the lesser quality Brazilian, sell for more than they should, but substantially less than a real 23 window for example.....thus setting comparables that BAT use as examples to try and convince owners of quality cars to settle for a lower reserves....a vicious circle. Hence knowledgable car sellers are not listing quality vehicles.

When the talking heads on media news shout that the economy is heading for a recession, people change their spending habits. Most likely a while, if ever, before quality cars show up on BAT again.

There are other alternatives to sell quality, valuable vehicles.
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Transporter Restorations
Upholstery Haus

Active 23 Window Samba Collector/Restorer,since 1986

[ryans65]

I hope they all take a huge plunge, there's a lot of cars I'd like a shot at owning before I die!

[NUTSFORBUSES]

Gas is on the rise, groceries are just Stupid, and to be frank, there is just not much good work around, so less money to risk on a luxury. All the talk is looking downward, just look at Gold prices. This is a good indicator. I deal with gold all my life, and i've never seen such increases in decades. $2300 per oz now, just a couple months ago I sold a couple kilos at $2000 per oz! 2 years back it was $1825. at 2.2 POUNDS, that is a very big diff. Gold tells (usually) a sure story of unsure times.
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kaiser kills kids.com

[chamilka]

[chamilka]

[chamilka]

[NUTSFORBUSES]

[Lind]

[Malokin Martin]

Fully restored show room quality Model T/A’s are about 8 grand… As the people who remember die off, the genre becomes progressively cheaper.

Also, minimal people under 30 want something that requires the maintenance without the speed and dependability. Especially once the van-life stink sets in.

They’re making cars now where the manufacturer doesn’t even produce a vehicle with a plug for changing the transmission fluid… for better or worse that’s giving the young people what they want. Convincing a young adult with money and a dream to pay and stay engaged with a vehicle hobby that requires weekly adjustments to SOMETHING is a pretty big ask.

[Cspider7]

[chamilka]