| Author |
Message |
busdaddy
Samba Member
Joined: February 12, 2004
Posts: 51125
Location: Surrey B.C. Canada, but thinking of Ukraine
|
 Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:58 pm Post subject: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
 |
|
Interesting to sit back and watch the goings on in the UK and the resulting drop in the GB pound as well as the ripple effect on global funds and stocks. Now many financial institutions and tech corporations are planning a move to Ireland or another non UK country as a result, many thousands of well paying jobs relocated or gone overnight or real soon.
We all know the UK has been driving bus prices for the last 10 years, those well paid young white collar hipster workers all want a well sorted campervan with a chequered floor for thier weekend holidays. Will this slow the market?, or at least correct it?, or will the trend continue unabated?
Thoughts?
_________________
Rust NEVER sleeps and stock never goes out of style.
Please don't PM technical questions, ask your problem in public so everyone can play along. If you think it's too stupid post it here
Stop dead photo links! Post your photos to The Samba Gallery!
Слава Україні! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Xevin 
Samba Member
Joined: January 08, 2014
Posts: 7624
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:05 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
BD. I think it will be a "correction" in the market. But after the dust settles. Boom. Who knows. Maybe the Dutch, Swedes, and French become the dominate player in Europe. UK has been a economic player in the world for 100s of years. Even after they relinquished of all those colonies/commonwealth states over the past century , they still remain a top 5 economy. Not to shabby for an island.
Maybe the time is right to buy back those rust free West Coast buses 
_________________
Keep on Busin'
| 67rustavenger wrote: |
GFY's Xevin and VW_Jimbo!  |
| Clatter wrote: |
| Damn that Xevin... |
| skills@eurocarsplus wrote: |
I respect Xevin and he's a turd  |
| SGKent wrote: |
My God! Xevin and I 100% agree  |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Volktales
Samba Member
Joined: June 21, 2013
Posts: 545
Location: Nanaimo, B.C. CANADA
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:37 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
Interesting times ahead for the United Kingdom. From an outsider's perspective, it seems somewhat unreal for this to have even happened. I can see a lot of "toys" coming up for sale if their economy does go into the "loo"...
_________________
1974 "Restfalia" Camper 2000 cc EFI 2001-
1970 Beetle first car, rotten, yard art 1985-
1966 Sunroof Beetle, restored 1998-
1964 Ghia, ongoing project 2007-
1962 Beetle Beryl,original paint survivor 2012-
1970 Savannah Beige Beetle 2012-
1992 16v GTI, 100% stock 2006-
1991 "Terseo", wife's old daily 1995-
1969 Chevrolet CST/10 (family owned since new)
1965 Gold Corvair Monza 2021-
1966 and 1965 Monza 2022- |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chabanais
Samba Member
Joined: July 27, 2002
Posts: 4866
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:41 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
Only a small percentage of Brits buy Buses I don't think things will change much.
_________________
"I spud therefore I yam." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SGKent
Samba Member
Joined: October 30, 2007
Posts: 41031
Location: Citrus Heights CA (Near Sacramento)
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:25 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
I mentioned it in this thread earlier today. Will be interesting.
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2...p;start=40
_________________
“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Manfred58sc
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2009
Posts: 3382
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
Don't assume this separation will have long term negative effects. Social restructuring can open up tremendous opportunity. The Bus's will still hold a special place in the market. I doubt it will affect this niche market. Cheap, imported products and services will be hurt by this move. This is the oldest industrialized economy in the world, I would not count it out.
_________________
Fat chick owner/operator |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Alan Brase
Samba Member
Joined: March 28, 2004
Posts: 4532
Location: Cedar Falls, Iowa
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:51 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
| Manfred58sc wrote: |
| Don't assume this separation will have long term negative effects. Social restructuring can open up tremendous opportunity. The Bus's will still hold a special place in the market. I doubt it will affect this niche market. Cheap, imported products and services will be hurt by this move. This is the oldest industrialized economy in the world, I would not count it out. |
You might be right. My first thought was that the pound will plummet, the middle class will get squeezed and all the demand will dry up for elderly German cars.
I've been In England in 1994 and 2007. I was left with feeling like I was very small compared to all the wealth these people have. Like driving around in Beverly hills, rodeo drive. Especially on weekends there are just so many wealthy people on the road. Big new Bimmers and Amgs and Bentleys everywhere. Speed limit on the M25 is 70 I think. Driving at night at 110 in the middle lane some cars would come by at a LOT faster, over 150, AT NIGHT. WHAT DOES IT COST TO DRIVE THAT FAST? And we were paying like $7 a gallon.
This London Orbital Road M25 at one point near Heathrow had a traffic count of 147,000 per day.
That's a staggering amount of money coming in the opposing lane.
They are so frigging wealthy it is mind boggling.
It's probably the working blokes that buy our cars and drive up the prices. Any down turn will hurt them more than the rich people., but still, I don't look for it to much affect the market values here.
Al
_________________
Al Brase
Projects: 67 sunroof bug, 67 Porsche 912 Targa, 70 Westy
Dec 1955 Single Cab pickup WANT 15" BUS RIMS dated 8/55, thru 12/55
To New owners: 1969 doublecab, 1971 Dormobile
Vanagons:
80 P27 Westy JUL 1979, 3rd oldest known US
83 1.6TD Vanagon, 87 Wolfie Westy daily driver, swap meet home |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rsbadura
Samba Member
Joined: November 30, 2009
Posts: 656
Location: Berlin, Germany
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:02 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
Hello.
The Bexit excitement of this week will drop over the time - the Brexit could take 2 years (defined by exit laws).
And nobody of the European want to isolate the UK as in some horror scenarios.
The youth of the UK and the north of UK vote to stay in the EU - times will changing... 
| busdaddy wrote: |
| We all know the UK has been driving bus prices for the last 10 years, ... |
A lot of US bays are reimported to Germany as well - sometimes it looks like the half of the current German bays are reimported from the US
But the bay window run started later after the first hype in the UK.
Regards,
_________________
Rolf-Stephan Badura
1970 VW Karmann-Ghia Coupe
1979 VW Bus L to camper conversion
1982 Eriba Pan travel trailer
2017 VW CrossPolo
HAZET classic tools |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Abscate
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014
Posts: 22640
Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:50 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
The net effect of this in 5 years is the UK will slink back into the EU and lose the pound. Youth will prevail. I'm not even sure a government that will exit can get elected. Impact on bus prices will be roughly the same as Indian butterfly wing motion
_________________
.ssS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Alan Brase
Samba Member
Joined: March 28, 2004
Posts: 4532
Location: Cedar Falls, Iowa
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:00 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
| Abscate wrote: |
| The net effect of this in 5 years is the UK will slink back into the EU and lose the pound. Youth will prevail. I'm not even sure a government that will exit can get elected. Impact on bus prices will be roughly the same as Indian butterfly wing motion |
Either that or something else.
SERIOUSLY, though folks. Hasn't the bubble already burst? It seems to me the high end 23's and 21's seem to linger on the lists for months. Some nicer, cheaper $2-5000 bays seem to get snapped up quickly, but it seems the higher end buyers are fewer.
I look at Vanagon prices and the high end ones just stagger me. $20-60k for a late Westy? Really? I'm driving a not too bad 1987 Wolfie Westy I bought for $300 in 2007 with a bad motor. It's my daily driver for years, but the idea of paying over $10k for such a car boggles my mind. I know some high priced ones have Go Westy motors but how reliable are they? They cost a lot for sure.
I just don't really see a lot of buyers out there looking for old buses at higher prices.
Al
_________________
Al Brase
Projects: 67 sunroof bug, 67 Porsche 912 Targa, 70 Westy
Dec 1955 Single Cab pickup WANT 15" BUS RIMS dated 8/55, thru 12/55
To New owners: 1969 doublecab, 1971 Dormobile
Vanagons:
80 P27 Westy JUL 1979, 3rd oldest known US
83 1.6TD Vanagon, 87 Wolfie Westy daily driver, swap meet home |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DougB
Samba Member
Joined: January 09, 2007
Posts: 1076
Location: Falls Church, Virginia, USA
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 6:48 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
Could be a good time to order a SpaceRoof if you've been considering one (we love ours). The better exchange rate could help a bit.
- Doug
_________________
'75 Campmobile (tin-top to SpaceRoof)
'73 Fastback
'52 BMW R67/2
'41 Zundapp KS600
'55 Puch SGS250
A very, very understanding wife |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SGKent
Samba Member
Joined: October 30, 2007
Posts: 41031
Location: Citrus Heights CA (Near Sacramento)
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
| 69doublecab wrote: |
| Abscate wrote: |
| The net effect of this in 5 years is the UK will slink back into the EU and lose the pound. Youth will prevail. I'm not even sure a government that will exit can get elected. Impact on bus prices will be roughly the same as Indian butterfly wing motion |
Either that or something else.
SERIOUSLY, though folks. Hasn't the bubble already burst? It seems to me the high end 23's and 21's seem to linger on the lists for months. Some nicer, cheaper $2-5000 bays seem to get snapped up quickly, but it seems the higher end buyers are fewer.
I look at Vanagon prices and the high end ones just stagger me. $20-60k for a late Westy? Really? I'm driving a not too bad 1987 Wolfie Westy I bought for $300 in 2007 with a bad motor. It's my daily driver for years, but the idea of paying over $10k for such a car boggles my mind. I know some high priced ones have Go Westy motors but how reliable are they? They cost a lot for sure.
I just don't really see a lot of buyers out there looking for old buses at higher prices.
Al |
Several folks have contacted me who have purchased in the $25K USD range and they still have work to do. The problem with the $2000 - $5000 range is those are wet dreams. It is like the I'll find a frog, kiss it and it will turn into a prince or princess. Someone buys the $3500 piece of crap which is minus an engine and full of rust. When they are done they either have $25,000 USD in it or it is 300 pounds heavier with all the bondo on it, and the engine and trans is out of a wrecked bug and on their last legs. You get what you pay for. My thoughts on Brexit are that time will tell. I don't see globalism surviving this cycle much longer because:
Citizens in countries cannot control who comes and goes, and what damage they leave. If you live in a small town in the middle east you may get your throat cut in a mass beheading. If you frequent a dance club some idiot with a gun may kill your friends who were just dancing. You may wake up and find your bus in a container headed for Asia. If you invent something great and patent it you may see a clone of it stamped made in China and your attorney will tell you that the US Gov't can't touch China. If you get bitten by a bug it may carry a disease from a 3rd world country brought here by someone who isn't supposed to be here. Your job may be gone tomorrow as you are replaced by someone who doesn't even speak English. Tomorrow your bank may tell you that someone in Russia hacked your bank account and passed the number to someone in Missouri who speaks an Eastern European and who forged your driver's license too. Your attorney tells you it will cost more than you have left in your pockets to stop all the collection calls generated by the bounced checks they also wrote in your name. The list goes on and people want to control their lives. Dr. Lester Thurow indicated in one of his last economic books 10 years ago that we have tried globalism for thousands of years and each time we fail for the reasons above. Too much change too fast and people walk away from it. Brexit will affect bus prices but only time will tell how. The day of the $4000 barn find that just needs to be dusted off and fuel added is long gone my friends. In fact it may never have been. I sold my 1971 with 400,000 miles on it in like new condition back in 1983 for $4300. That buyer looked almost for a year in the Los Angeles area to find a bus as clean as mine. No one who correctly restores a bus these days will part with it for less that around $15K to $20K unless they are in very dire straits. Restored buses are too rare these days. Think about it - other than people you know from here, how often does a bus pass you a week compared to say an Accord? I am guessing there are maybe 30 - 35 bays in the Sacramento Valley area. That is in a population of maybe 2 1/2 million people.
_________________
“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chabanais
Samba Member
Joined: July 27, 2002
Posts: 4866
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:48 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
It will be a good time for me to buy more stuff from Custom and Commercial as the dollar will be stronger against theirs so that's a good thing.
Less centralized control is a good thing, IMO. I was in Europe when Maastricht was approved and I thought it was a bad idea. Now, those same people who voted yes then voted no now.
I guess that whole "wisdom and age" thing has some truth to it.
Japan and Holland is still a big market for Buses so I expect any slack to be taken up by them.
_________________
"I spud therefore I yam." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Tom Powell
Samba Member
Joined: December 01, 2005
Posts: 4855
Location: Kaneohe
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SamboSamba22
Samba Member
Joined: August 06, 2015
Posts: 2772
Location: Benton, Arkansas
|
| Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:01 am Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
The wealthy will always have wealth to pay with, whether or not they in the UK keep their interest in classic VW production, time will tell the tale.
The Brexit situation is of political and institutional agenda business maneuvers, where as businesses can continue to profit with substantial margins, lower operational costs, and continue to fuel the manufacturing loop of greed. Business in our western countries have long seen the day of healthy and morally correct practices. There are only a few business who stand by such grounds, and for instance our various VW vendors in the UK, well all we can do as a global market is continue to give the lads our business, and help to contribute to keep the market alive within our VW community.
Again, as mentioned, the UK will be back in the EU in some facaded reason, and large business will indeed, benefit the most out of it. It is of similar practices as seen in the US in ’08 by banks/car manufacturers/investment businesses, etc..
A different political and “voted” move, but the same outcome nonetheless
Sam
_________________
The Bus Barn Ltd. Co.
Oct. ’67 Double Cab (’68 Crew Cab)
[url=http://www.vw-mplate.com/mplate-44412.png]Click to view image[/URL]
March '69 Delivery (Panel Bus)
[url=http://www.vw-mplate.com/mplate-44414.png]Click to view image[/URL] |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
gondiwindi
Samba Member
Joined: December 12, 2006
Posts: 1195
Location: Tampa Bay, FL
|
| Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
There is an election coming up in the US. Watch and learn from the situation in the UK as to what happens when the general population doesn't understand the complexities of how to run a country and narrows down a collection of major issues to a yes/ no type vote.
Stupid Brits made a massive change on a 52/48 vote leaving half of the country unhappy. I can see a general desire to not make large purchases with this uncertainty now being forced upon the UK.
Lesson learned = Get your butts out and vote and when you do, Be sure to understand all of the issues fully before ticking a box. Good luck. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HarryFD
Samba Member
Joined: February 24, 2012
Posts: 751
Location: Portland, OR
|
| Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
As it always seems. The sheeple listen to the talking heads and think the sky is falling. No one knows the long term impact but I am certain, while it may be different than previously expected, cooler heads will prevail and this will turn out ok.
Just remember that many who are pronouncing the sky is falling have a personal interest in getting people to churn their investments.
_________________
1970 Deluxe Sunroof Bay Brilliant Blue/Cloud White
1973.5 911 Targa
2009 MB C300 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SGKent
Samba Member
Joined: October 30, 2007
Posts: 41031
Location: Citrus Heights CA (Near Sacramento)
|
| Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
| HarryFD wrote: |
As it always seems. The sheeple listen to the talking heads and think the sky is falling. No one knows the long term impact but I am certain, while it may be different than previously expected, cooler heads will prevail and this will turn out ok.
Just remember that many who are pronouncing the sky is falling have a personal interest in getting people to churn their investments. |
so far the only people I've heard saying the sky is falling are a few people that don't want it to happen. That doesn't mean you can put on your Susie Sunshine face and pretend there will be no effect.The Sterling has fallen against the USD and if you need parts from the UK now is a good time to consider placing an order.
_________________
“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Manfred58sc
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2009
Posts: 3382
|
| Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
Assuming that the Brits were mislead and labeling them unkindly is unfair. I have been there recently and totally understand the issues they have. Luckily they got to vote on it and now they move forward, just like every other country that has a representative form of government. Its not like they voted to stop buying gas and VW's. Respect their process and help them enjoy the VW hobby..
_________________
Fat chick owner/operator |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rubber Duck
Samba Member
Joined: January 18, 2006
Posts: 806
Location: Pitt Meadows BC
|
| Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:25 pm Post subject: Re: Brexit and it's influence on bus prices |
|
|
Well, voter turnout was really good. On an issue as monumental as this, I believe the percentages are accurate. There'll be pain, but I think they voted the right way. I tend to think when big business and govt pulls out all the scare rhetoric, the proper direction to run is the other way.
As for how it will affect bus prices, I believe that like the pound, a drop, if any, will likely only be temporary as the true value of the item is enduring and not fleeting.
_________________
---------
Rubber Duck
1974 Westfalia |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
